SOMEN LIVE
the state of the private AI market
derived from the graph - 2026-10-17 07:20 UTC
THIS WEEK: K2 Space +78.3% on the week at $183.17 on the Clarity tape - last round marked it at $6.8Bsix numbers our graph derives from public sources - what the data says, not what the press releases said
THE SPREAD
34%
of companies' secondary tapes trade below the print their own last round set
median +1.7% - 176 tapes joined to their round dates
BLIND MONEY - 2026
$14.6B
filed with the amount raised and no valuation - money without a price
61 companies - databricks $5.0B, crusoe $3.1B, tenstorrent $1.3B, groq $0.7B
THE CHAIN - it narrows as it deepens
23depend on NVIDIA
>
14need TSMC
>
9need ASML
>
1one laser source
>
1one optics source
companies that depend on NVIDIA, that need TSMC, that need ASML, down to the one German laser source beneath every EUV machine on earth. The dependency the whole market runs on is also its narrowest point.
live edge counts, re-derived at every render
GROUND TRUTH
+7.8 km2
of new data-hall roof, measured from orbit - what the capital said, the dirt did
61 campuses, 50 material - latest pass 2026-10-16 - per-site evidence on /buildout
THE CIRCULAR SET
9
companies buy from the suppliers that hold their equity - vendor and shareholder in one cap table
coreweave, crusoe, openai, scale_ai, skild, ssi
BREADTH - THIS WEEK
41 up 20 down
the private market's advance/decline line, straight off the tape
428 weekly moves across the tracked universe
THE LEDGER
14 live falsifiers
published claims with dated, public tests attached - graded in the open when they resolve
- next falsifier due in 32 days (etched) - 1 graded on the public scorecard
META
4d
earnings - due 2026-10-21
GOOGL
11d
earnings - due 2026-10-28
MSFT
11d
earnings - due 2026-10-28
AMZN
12d
earnings - due 2026-10-29
INTC
12d
earnings - due 2026-10-29
AAPL
16d
earnings - due 2026-11-02
AMD
17d
earnings - due 2026-11-03
etched
32d
falsifier - due 2026-11-18
NVDA
32d
earnings - due 2026-11-18
two_stacks
40d
falsifier - due 2026-11-26
anthropic
49d
falsifier - due 2026-12-05
anthropic
49d
falsifier - due 2026-12-05
WIRE - last 72 hours
[event] Nscale - Bloomberg reported that Nscale is preparing for a US IPO as soon as Oct... - 7h ago[event] Tesla - The oxygen-compatibility carrier (cited engineering reference): materia... - 7h ago[event] AirTrunk - Reuters corrected its report on AirTrunk's prospective Johor data-centr... - 31h ago[event] Anduril Industries - Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf defended the company's government contract wi... - 31h ago[event] Atoms - Atoms announced a $1.7 billion equity investment led by a16z and said i... - 31h ago[event] coreweave - epoch_coreweave_chester_va: built 7.1% -> 9.4% of a 5.8 km2 window (+0.... - 31h ago[event] coreweave - epoch_coreweave_ellendale_nd: built 0.4% -> 1.9% of a 11.2 km2 window (... - 31h ago[event] Crusoe - Perplexity announced that Crusoe is partnering with it to add SPACE, Pe... - 31h ago[event] Databricks - Databricks announced REGISTER and UNREGISTER APIs that enable an Iceber... - 31h ago[event] DayOne Data Centers - The Information reported that DayOne is pursuing a multibillion-dollar... - 31h ago[event] Eaton - SEC 8-K filing (2026-10-16) - 8-K - Current report: <b>Filed:</b> 2026-... - 31h ago[event] Groq - Groq announced that Meta's Muse Spark Open model is in limited preview... - 31h ago[event] Harvey - Harvey launched Intake, a product that centralizes incoming legal reque... - 31h ago[event] Harvey - Harvey launched Legal Work Orchestration, which brings matter phases, t... - 31h ago[event] Nscale - Bloomberg reported that Nscale is preparing for a US IPO as soon as Oct... - 7h ago[event] Tesla - The oxygen-compatibility carrier (cited engineering reference): materia... - 7h ago[event] AirTrunk - Reuters corrected its report on AirTrunk's prospective Johor data-centr... - 31h ago[event] Anduril Industries - Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf defended the company's government contract wi... - 31h ago[event] Atoms - Atoms announced a $1.7 billion equity investment led by a16z and said i... - 31h ago[event] coreweave - epoch_coreweave_chester_va: built 7.1% -> 9.4% of a 5.8 km2 window (+0.... - 31h ago[event] coreweave - epoch_coreweave_ellendale_nd: built 0.4% -> 1.9% of a 11.2 km2 window (... - 31h ago[event] Crusoe - Perplexity announced that Crusoe is partnering with it to add SPACE, Pe... - 31h ago[event] Databricks - Databricks announced REGISTER and UNREGISTER APIs that enable an Iceber... - 31h ago[event] DayOne Data Centers - The Information reported that DayOne is pursuing a multibillion-dollar... - 31h ago[event] Eaton - SEC 8-K filing (2026-10-16) - 8-K - Current report: <b>Filed:</b> 2026-... - 31h ago[event] Groq - Groq announced that Meta's Muse Spark Open model is in limited preview... - 31h ago[event] Harvey - Harvey launched Intake, a product that centralizes incoming legal reque... - 31h ago[event] Harvey - Harvey launched Legal Work Orchestration, which brings matter phases, t... - 31h ago