The private side of the AI market, on the clock.

Everyone else's bubble index reads the news - announced rounds, capex guides, classified headlines. This one reads the tape, the filings, the dirt and the job boards: what strangers actually pay for the paper, what capital actually did, and what the ground actually shows. Seven clocks. Each independently checkable, each with its receipt.

derived 2026-10-27 03:35 UTC - every number recomputed at render

HOW TO READ NORMAL CAUTION EXTREME iEvery clock places today's reading against its own documented range - the anchor under each bar states its own. Red is a state, not a forecast. Hover or tap any card's i for what its three colors mean.
THE PAPER GAPEXTREMEiNORMAL tapes churn near prints - normal
CAUTION drifting from prints - froth or winter building
EXTREME an extreme - prints defended or abandoned
34%

of companies' tapes trade below the print their own last round set

vs its own as-of history (21 mo): green 41-61, amber to 36/62, red beyond - now the FROTH side
>7 RECEIPTS
starcloud: tape 95.7% below its own round print
consensys-software: tape 79.9% below its own round print
kore.ai: tape 77.3% below its own round print
medallion: tape 74.5% below its own round print
mammoth-biosciences: tape 68.0% below its own round print
dapper-labs: tape 67.8% below its own round print
147 of 373 year-old tapes at their 52-week low; 10 new in 14 days

147 of 373 names with a year of tape sit at their 52-week low; 10 new this week
THE COLLATERALEXTREMEiNORMAL lenders comfortable
CAUTION high-yield pay demanded
EXTREME distressed-grade - default risk priced in
14.8% yield

AI-DC debt yields + counterparty migration

credit conventions: <=7% normal / 7-12 high-yield / >12 distressed-grade
>8 RECEIPTS
CoreWeave 2032 bonds: - (public bond, 2026-10-14) - 9.625% coupon at 14.8% YTM; S&P B+
Nebius converts: $5.75B (convertible, 2026-08-24) - upsized twice from $4.5B
Nebius Citi facility: $3.5B (bank, 2026-10-22) - senior secured; data-center buildout
SpaceX GPU debt: $40B (bank/other, 2026-10-25) - largest GPU-collateralized on record; callable
Nscale converts: $3.36B (convertible, 2026-09-25) - Third Point-led; pre-IPO
Lambda TLB: $926M (bank/specialty, 2026-08-27) - Moody's Baa2 - first IG-rated GPU TLB
Lambda insurance facility: $1.0B (insurance, 2026-10-02) - delayed-draw, marketed to insurance companies
Crusoe Neuberger: $700M (specialty, 2026-10-23) - POWER infrastructure collateral

3 bank, 2 specialty, 3 other counterparty prints - yield read 2026-10-14
THE TAKE-OR-PAYEXTREMEiNORMAL forward buying covered by booked revenue
CAUTION years of revenue committed ahead
EXTREME the demand side locked - pay with or without demand
8.1x

filed fixed compute commitments vs the filer's own annualized revenue

desk anchor: <2x forward buying covered / 2-5x heavy / >5x the demand side locked
>2 RECEIPTS
Anthropic: $265.6B fixed at Jun-30-26 (terms 1-20y) vs H1-26 $16.3B x2 = 8.1x (S-1 filed 2026-10-26); counterparties SpaceXAI <=120.5B, Google >=114.5B, Amazon >=110B, Microsoft >=44.9B, Nscale ~44.6B, Lambda ~41.3B
Nscale: ~$51B contracted backlog vs ~$100M booked = 510.0x (S-1 filed 2026-09-18); counterparties Microsoft ~$43.8B (unnamed in its S-1, resolved)

Anthropic: $265.6B fixed at Jun-30-26 (terms 1-20y) vs H1-26 $16.3B x2; Nscale: ~$51B contracted backlog vs ~$100M booked
THE WINDOWCAUTIONiNORMAL exits available - the window is open
CAUTION exits tightening
EXTREME the 2000/2022 shutdown pattern
4 filed

AI-infrastructure IPOs by pipeline status

back-count of 10: <=3 window open / 4-5 tightening / >=6 shutdown pattern
>10 RECEIPTS
Anthropic: filed (public S-1 on file 2026-10-26)
Nscale: filed (S-1 filed 2026-09-18)
DayOne DC: pushed (Bloomberg Oct 21)
Moonshot AI: filed (Bloomberg/Forbes Oct 6-13)
AgiBot: postponed (Caijing Oct 13)
AirTrunk REIT: postponed (Reuters Oct 25)
Solidigm: withdrawn (company announcement Oct 24)
DeepSeek: filed (round-2 close Oct 22)
Databricks: pushed (Ghodsi Jun 4)
Klarna: priced (exchange record)

2 pushed back, 2 postponed, 1 withdrawn, 1 priced
THE TWO-TAPE THERMOMETERCAUTIONiNORMAL both markets agree on the price
CAUTION one market repricing ahead - watch it lead
EXTREME two prices for the same asset - discovery broken
-31%

the private China AI tape's 30-day move

desk magnitudes: <10pp the markets agree / 10-25 diverge / >25 broken
>10 RECEIPTS
unitree: (private tape) -31.3% in 30d
minimax: (exchange line) -36.7% in 30d
smic: (exchange line) -27.5% in 30d
cxmt: (exchange line) -24.1% in 30d
hygon: (exchange line) -20.3% in 30d
zhipu: (exchange line) -20.2% in 30d
moore_threads: (exchange line) -12.8% in 30d
metax: (exchange line) -10.2% in 30d
enflame: (exchange line) -9.9% in 30d
unitree: (exchange line) +37.7% in 30d

private tape -31% (1 name with tape) vs public median -20% (9 exchange names, closes as of 2026-10-26)
THE CLAIM REVISIONSNORMALiNORMAL claims holding - the stories are stable
CAUTION walk-backs clustering
EXTREME a walk-back wave - the narrative cracking
1 down

claimed numbers edited by their own source

down-revisions per 100 claim series: <1 isolated / 1-3 cluster / >3 wave
>2 RECEIPTS
lambda: ARR 760M -> 520M (sacra.com/research/no-side-quests-for-lambda, 2026-08-17)
linear: customer_count 33K -> 40K (linear.app/about, 2026-10-01)

vs 1 up - the same source revising its own claimed number (90d, >5% moves)
THE SLACK DERIVATIVEOFFiNORMAL usage absorbs new capacity
CAUTION absorption slowing
EXTREME the glut signature - supply outrunning use
--

compute usage growth vs installed capacity growth

>1 RECEIPTS
arms after the next monthly Epoch vintage

needs 2+ monthly vintages to compute

The Clock states levels and derivatives. It never calls turns, and no composite score exists by design - independent, separately checkable readings are stronger than one blended number. The tape is the secondary market's view, not a fundamental valuation. The clocks are correlated: windows on one room, not independent votes. Definitions, sources and cadences: the methodology page.