The private side of the AI market, on the clock.

Everyone else's bubble index reads the news - announced rounds, capex guides, classified headlines. This one reads the tape, the filings, the dirt and the job boards: what strangers actually pay for the paper, what capital actually did, and what the ground actually shows. Five clocks. Each independently checkable.

derived 2026-10-26 06:20 UTC - every number recomputed at render

THE PAPER GAP
34%

of companies' tapes trade below the print their own last round set

147 of 373 names with a year of tape sit at their 52-week low; 13 new this week

median gap 2.2% | worst: starcloud -95.7%, consensys-software -79.9%, kore.ai -77.3%

THE TWO-TAPE THERMOMETER
-31%

the private China AI tape's 30-day move

private China tape 30d move (1 names with tape) vs 9 public exchange names

unitree -31%

THE WINDOW
4 filed

AI-infrastructure IPOs by pipeline status

2 pushed back, 2 postponed, 1 withdrawn, 1 priced

Anthropic (filed), Nscale (filed), DayOne DC (pushed), Moonshot AI (filed), AgiBot (postponed)

THE COLLATERAL
14.8% yield

AI-DC debt yields + counterparty migration

3 bank, 2 specialty, 3 other counterparty prints

latest: CoreWeave 2032 bonds - (public bond)

THE SLACK DERIVATIVE
--

compute usage growth vs installed capacity growth

needs 2+ monthly vintages to compute

monthly cadence - the first diff lands after the Nov vintage

The Clock states levels and derivatives. It never calls turns, and no composite score exists by design - five independent, separately checkable readings are stronger than one blended number. The tape is the secondary market's view, not a fundamental valuation. The five clocks are correlated: five windows on one room, not five independent votes. Definitions, sources and cadences: the methodology page.