SOMEN LIVE
the state of the private AI market
derived from the graph - 2026-10-22 01:49 UTC
THIS WEEK: AMI Labs +328.3% on the week at $2,748.43 on the Clarity tape - last round marked it at $3.5Bsix numbers our graph derives from public sources - what the data says, not what the press releases said
THE SPREAD
35%
of companies' secondary tapes trade below the print their own last round set
median +1.3% - 175 tapes joined to their round dates
BLIND MONEY - 2026
$14.6B
filed with the amount raised and no valuation - money without a price
61 companies - databricks $5.0B, crusoe $3.1B, tenstorrent $1.3B, groq $0.7B
THE CHAIN - it narrows as it deepens
23depend on NVIDIA
>
14need TSMC
>
9need ASML
>
1one laser source
>
1one optics source
companies that depend on NVIDIA, that need TSMC, that need ASML, down to the one German laser source beneath every EUV machine on earth. The dependency the whole market runs on is also its narrowest point.
live edge counts, re-derived at every render
GROUND TRUTH
+6.9 km2
of new data-hall roof, measured from orbit - what the capital said, the dirt did
90 campuses, 68 material - latest pass 2026-10-19 - per-site evidence on /buildout
THE CIRCULAR SET
9
companies buy from the suppliers that hold their equity - vendor and shareholder in one cap table
coreweave, crusoe, openai, scale_ai, skild, ssi
BREADTH - THIS WEEK
43 up 28 down
the private market's advance/decline line, straight off the tape
449 weekly moves across the tracked universe
THE LEDGER
14 live falsifiers
published claims with dated, public tests attached - graded in the open when they resolve
- next falsifier due in 27 days (etched) - 2 graded on the public scorecard
MARKET PRICING OF COMPUTE
$22,976M/MW
valuation per megawatt of capacity - the market pays 300x more for the lab than the cloud
anthropic $22,976M / nscale $2,857M / openai $2,024M - from valuations x Epoch MW
CAPITAL INTENSITY
$282B/km2
median capital raised per km2 of construction observed from orbit - the capital-per-dirt ratio
25 companies - funded edges x satellite
STACK VELOCITY
3.4x faster
Memory sites building 3.4x faster than Cloud & serving - the bottleneck layer
avg km2 per site by stack layer
CIRCULAR SITES
14
companies building data centers they buy compute from - the loop, geographic
investor network x dependency x satellite
GOOGL
6d
earnings - due 2026-10-28
MSFT
6d
earnings - due 2026-10-28
AMZN
7d
earnings - due 2026-10-29
INTC
7d
earnings - due 2026-10-29
AAPL
11d
earnings - due 2026-11-02
AMD
12d
earnings - due 2026-11-03
etched
27d
falsifier - due 2026-11-18
NVDA
27d
earnings - due 2026-11-18
two_stacks
35d
falsifier - due 2026-11-26
anthropic
44d
falsifier - due 2026-12-05
anthropic
44d
falsifier - due 2026-12-05
figure
70d
falsifier - due 2026-12-31
WIRE - last 72 hours
[event] Databricks - Databricks introduced Agent Memory in beta on Agent Bricks. The feature... - 25h ago[event] Databricks - HP described deploying Databricks CustomerLake and Genie on its marketi... - 25h ago[event] DayOne Data Centers - Bloomberg reported that DayOne is weighing a delay to its U.S. IPO or a... - 25h ago[event] ERCOT - UPDATE, Oct 21: the precise sector split (ERCOT's own June-19 LLWG slid... - 25h ago[event] klarna - Klarna and Zoom expanded their integration to Canada. Canadian customer... - 25h ago[event] Lambda - In its GTC Berlin 2026 announcement, Lambda said it is supporting NVIDI... - 25h ago[event] Lambda - NVIDIA reported that Lambda's proof of concept using DSX MaxLPS on HGX... - 25h ago[event] Meta - SEC 8-K filing (2026-10-21) - 8-K - Current report: <b>Filed:</b> 2026-... - 25h ago[event] Microsoft - SEC DEF 14A filing (2026-10-21) - DEF 14A - Other definitive proxy stat... - 25h ago[event] Mistral AI - Mistral launched Voxtral 3, a speech-model family and voice-agent SDK s... - 25h ago[event] Nscale - Schneider Electric, AVEVA, Nscale, and Start Campus announced an Immers... - 25h ago[event] NVIDIA - Bringing the Spark to Europe: Local Intelligence Powers Next Wave of Ag... - 25h ago[event] NVIDIA - Europe's Industrial Leaders Reinvent Engineering and Manufacturing With... - 25h ago[event] OpenAI - OpenAI announced it is acquiring Orchestra Bio, a platform for coordina... - 25h ago[event] Databricks - Databricks introduced Agent Memory in beta on Agent Bricks. The feature... - 25h ago[event] Databricks - HP described deploying Databricks CustomerLake and Genie on its marketi... - 25h ago[event] DayOne Data Centers - Bloomberg reported that DayOne is weighing a delay to its U.S. IPO or a... - 25h ago[event] ERCOT - UPDATE, Oct 21: the precise sector split (ERCOT's own June-19 LLWG slid... - 25h ago[event] klarna - Klarna and Zoom expanded their integration to Canada. Canadian customer... - 25h ago[event] Lambda - In its GTC Berlin 2026 announcement, Lambda said it is supporting NVIDI... - 25h ago[event] Lambda - NVIDIA reported that Lambda's proof of concept using DSX MaxLPS on HGX... - 25h ago[event] Meta - SEC 8-K filing (2026-10-21) - 8-K - Current report: <b>Filed:</b> 2026-... - 25h ago[event] Microsoft - SEC DEF 14A filing (2026-10-21) - DEF 14A - Other definitive proxy stat... - 25h ago[event] Mistral AI - Mistral launched Voxtral 3, a speech-model family and voice-agent SDK s... - 25h ago[event] Nscale - Schneider Electric, AVEVA, Nscale, and Start Campus announced an Immers... - 25h ago[event] NVIDIA - Bringing the Spark to Europe: Local Intelligence Powers Next Wave of Ag... - 25h ago[event] NVIDIA - Europe's Industrial Leaders Reinvent Engineering and Manufacturing With... - 25h ago[event] OpenAI - OpenAI announced it is acquiring Orchestra Bio, a platform for coordina... - 25h ago