SOMEN LIVE - the state of the private AI market

SOMEN LIVE

the state of the private AI market
derived from the graph - 2026-10-27 02:45 UTC

THIS WEEK: Cowboy Space Corporation +987.1% on the week at $7.61 on the Clarity tape - last round marked it at $2.0Bsix numbers our graph derives from public sources - what the data says, not what the press releases said

THE BUBBLE CLOCK

34%

of companies' secondary tapes trade below the print their own last round set - the lead of seven clocks over the private side

median +2.2% - 183 tapes joined to their round dates - six more clocks inside

BLIND MONEY - 2026

$14.6B

filed with the amount raised and no valuation - money without a price

61 companies - databricks $5.0B, crusoe $3.1B, tenstorrent $1.3B, groq $0.7B

THE CHAIN - it narrows as it deepens

companies that depend on NVIDIA, that need TSMC, that need ASML, down to the one German laser source beneath every EUV machine on earth. The dependency the whole market runs on is also its narrowest point.

live edge counts, re-derived at every render

THE CIRCULAR SET

companies buy from the suppliers that hold their equity - vendor and shareholder in one cap table

coreweave, crusoe, openai, scale_ai, skild, ssi

THE STACK

42%

of installed frontier compute is estimated in use by the five labs Epoch tracks - the rest serves others, sits slack, or is still ramping

6.1M of 14.8M H100e (band 29-60%) - per Epoch AI (CC BY 4.0)

GROUND TRUTH

+6.9 km2

of new data-hall roof, measured from orbit - what the capital said, the dirt did

90 campuses, 68 material - latest pass 2026-10-19 - per-site evidence on /buildout

BREADTH - THIS WEEK

50 up 23 down

the private market's advance/decline line, straight off the tape

454 weekly moves across the tracked universe

THE LEDGER

11 live falsifiers

published claims with dated, public tests attached - graded in the open when they resolve

- next falsifier due in 22 days (etched) - 2 graded on the public scorecard

MARKET PRICING OF COMPUTE

$22,976M/MW

valuation per megawatt of capacity - the market pays 300x more for the lab than the cloud

anthropic $22,976M / nscale $2,857M / openai $2,024M - from valuations x Epoch MW

SIGNALS - derived, classed, dated

THE CATALYST WEEK: 9 earnings prints + falsifier resolves

THE BOTTLENECK: 75.3% Q4 2025 - interval 62-93%

THE HIRING TELL: +3 Product +55 - Anthropic +244

GOOGL

earnings - due 2026-10-28

MSFT

earnings - due 2026-10-28

AMZN

earnings - due 2026-10-29

INTC

earnings - due 2026-10-29

AAPL

earnings - due 2026-11-02

AMD

earnings - due 2026-11-03

etched

22d

falsifier - due 2026-11-18

NVDA

22d

earnings - due 2026-11-18

two_stacks

30d

falsifier - due 2026-11-26

anthropic

39d

falsifier - due 2026-12-05

compute

96d

falsifier - due 2027-01-31

robotics

155d

falsifier - due 2027-03-31

WIRE - last 72 hours